What Will the Olympics Do for China?

The Beijing Olympics opened on Aug. 8th with a pyrotechnic display of Chinese organization, technology, and talent in the Bird's Nest national stadium. The four-hour show directed by Chinese filmmaker Zhang Yimou featured more than 15,000 performers including martial arts experts, singers, and musicians performing before an audience of 100,000. Dancers performed skits heralding China's 5,000 years of history and invention while British soprano Sarah Brightman joined Chinese singer Liu Huan in singing the Olympic theme song. In attendance were more than 80 world leaders including U.S. President George W. Bush, Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin, and Chinese President Hu Jintao, as well as Microsoft founder Bill Gates, News Corp. mogul Rupert Murdoch, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon star Zhang Ziyi.

Beyond the fanfare and fireworks, the outcome of the Beijing Olympics—more than most previous Games—will have far reaching implications around the globe. A successful Games will help a newly confident China with its 1.3 billion people move more decisively toward economic openness and engagement with the world. Some believe a successful Olympics could spur a faster move toward political liberalization—much as the 1988 Seoul Olympics was seen as doing for South Korea. The Olympics too could highlight China's many economic and social achievements, helping overcome some of the misconceptions and fears about China's growing might still held by many in the world.

But a host of potential problems could also flare up and lead China in perhaps a different direction. The Beijing Games are opening with a lot of questions: Will the air magically clear (a gray pall hung over Beijing during the opening ceremony), or will pollution problems persist during the 16 days the Games run, hitting athletes hard? Will the inevitable protests, whether they be about Sudan, Tibet, or religious freedom, be dealt with calmly and create minimal disruption to the Games? Alternately, will the Chinese authorities use a more heavy-handed approach, inviting negative media attention from the 30,000 journalists come from around the world to cover the Olympics events? And will threats of terrorism remain just that—only threats—or might an actual damaging attack happen?

Growing Pride

Weighty questions. But already the Olympics has helped boost growing Chinese pride. A study by Ogilvy Group showed that 75% of Chinese say the Olympics makes them proud of their country. And an even greater 87% see the Olympics as an opportunity to help Chinese brands, including Olympic sponsors China Mobile and Lenovo, become more international. "Excitement among local Chinese has grown throughout the country. The new wave of enthusiasm is driven by national pride and patriotism for China serving as host of the Olympic Games," the report said.

If foreign protesters succeed in actually disrupting the Games, or drawing the world's attention away from the sports events themselves, however, that very likely would anger large numbers of Chinese. In their minds, protests would become a malicious effort to sabotage a time of great pride for China. And that could strengthen a Chinese nationalism sometimes defined most by a sense of victimization, and carefully cultivated through repeated references to the historical abuses suffered by China going back centuries. That less attractive variety of nationalism (BusinessWeek.com, 4/24/08) was already on display earlier this year following the unrest in Tibet.

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